A mere eight weeks prior that Morgan Rogers found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, appearing bewildered while his coach berated him over missing a pass in behind. Back then, as Villa failed to win in six, it wasn't clear whether his performances were a symptom or the reason for Villa's wider issues.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
In the latest match, however, the touchline reaction was entirely far more favourable. As Rogers swept in his brace-sealing goal to restore Villa's lead, Emery discarded his jacket, spread his arms and roared. The team were on their way to ten wins in a row , after failing to win their initial half-dozen matches, now sit just three points off the leaders Arsenal.
Are They Legitimate Hopefuls?
That’s a rather hard query to resolve. The historical record, a general sense of this institution, suggests not. Moreover, they have not been completely commanding during this run, even as the wins have stacked up.
As per the data, on just two occasions has the team posted an expected goals figure significantly higher than the opposition. For a team which has strung together a ten-match winning streak, they look weirdly vulnerable – however right now the fine lines are going in their favour.
The Rogers Recipe
Their recent policy seems to be to exchange chances with rivals and then rely on their star man to bail them out with some clinical strikes. This was the case away to Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and once more versus Manchester United.
Rogers' first goal stemmed from a superb shot, bent just inside the goal frame from a wide position. The follow-up goal proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of his first as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, the opposition had a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. The team has triumphed in eight consecutive games by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in nearly all of those matches.
A reversion to average may well be the greatest opponent they have to face in the near future. The forward, in all likelihood, will not continue to blasting the ball into the net's top corner indefinitely.
A Case for Belief
Perhaps there is a different scenario where, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Important figures may yet rediscover their best form.
- Ollie Watkins could start scoring again.
- Jadon Sancho could transform into the performer he resembled in Germany.
- The injured centre-backs are due to come back from the treatment room, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.
Maybe within that lies the possibility of a title challenge, yet it seems unlikely can continue to depend solely on one man.
Relishing the Unlikely
Yet, this was unforeseen. Nobody thought the team would sit third at Christmas. And certainly two months ago, few could imagine Rogers as the year closed would be at the forefront of a title charge and appearing as an essential England player.
This remarkable period is to be savoured precisely because it appears so improbable. As the match-winner stood in front of the Villa faithful when the game ended orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be relishing every moment. Which he fully merits. These spells are uncommon in the sport and must be appreciated.
