A decade following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an highly divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in universities but very few government figures or activists want to engage even with the basics. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. Both composes two articles that strive for objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions cover national emblems, levies, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will win here and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has got important lessons to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster must participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
